Kings vs. Timberwolves Preview – By the Numbers

November 24, 2023

The Kings head to Minnesota for the final game of their 6-game road trip and what seems like the decisive game of the In Season Tournament. Both the Kings and Timberwolves are 2-0 in the tournament heading into this one, and will be a key game to win if the Kings want to ensure their position in the standings.

Minnesota is on a roll. They’ve won 3 games in a row and 10 of their last 11. They come into the game with the 15th ranked offense and best defense in the NBA. Let me tell you now, at least from the numbers, their defense is legit.

They’re holding opponents to 43.0% from the field (30th), 32.3% from 3 (29th) and only giving up 21.1 FTA’s (24th) while holding opponents to 105.8 Points per game (t-30th). The only place on the court that looks like a potential ‘weakness’ is defending the mid-range, where opponents are shooting 42.1% (13th). I’ll leave it up to you if you truly want to call that a weakness.

Individually, Anthony Edwards is on a different level this year. He’s averaging 26.1 Points, 5.9 Rebounds, 5.1 Assists on 46.7/38.9/84.7% shooting splits, all of which are career highs. With Keegan Murray out again, it may have to be a defend by committee approach against Ant tonight. Edwards is excelling at getting to the rim this year, with a 70.4% Restricted Area FG%. That percentage drops to 36.5% in the Non-Restricted paint area, so the Kings should try and keep him slightly away from the rim as much as possible.

For the Kings, Trey Lyles came back with a bang on Wednesday with 12 Points and 8 Rebounds, on 4-of-8 shooting from the field and 3-of-7 from deep. Lyles is not only a great shooter but a very underrated rebounder, which will be key tonight against KAT and Gobert. His ability to stretch the floor with Minnesota’s two bigs could open up the offense just enough to give Fox and Sabonis more breathing room inside.

And now for the Swing Stat of the game. As simple as it may seem, it could come down to 3P% tonight. In their 11 wins, the Timberwolves have held their opponents to 28.8% from beyond the arc. In their 3 losses, opponents have shot 46.9% from deep. For the Kings, they are shooting 37.3% in their wins and 30.2% in their losses. Sometimes it’s as simple as making your shots. With Gobert roaming the paint tonight, it may just come down to that.