Kings vs. Spurs Preview – By the Numbers

November 17, 2023

The Kings are back in action to take on the Spurs in their second In-Season Tournament game of the year. I can’t lie, the tournament has pulled me in and I’m all in on it. The players seem to care, fans as a whole seem to care, and it’s been a fun addition to the beginning of the season. With a win tonight, the Kings (1-0) can knock the Spurs out of the tournament (0-2) by giving them their 3rd loss. They can also drive up their Point Differential, which currently sits at +7, with a big win and shore up their tiebreaker stat leading up to games against the Warriors and Timberwolves.

The odds of that happening are high, as the Spurs come into the game with the 29th ranked offense, 29th ranked defense, and worst Net Rating of -13.4. It’s games like these where the Kings don’t have to be good on both ends of the floor, but as long as they hit on either offense or defense tonight (how wild that that’s a thing now), they should be able to do enough to get the win.

In the last few games though, the Kings are becoming a true two-way team. One of the things that has propelled them is their ability to be disruptive and get into the passing lanes on defense. Not only did they have 20 Steals against the Lakers, but they had 24 deflections. These weren’t all pick-your-pocket steals, or get lucky that the ball came to you. They were active and anticipated disruptions that the Kings caused over and over again. The Spurs turn the ball over 16.3 times per game, 3rd most in the league, and the Kings are up to 8.4 Steals per game, tied for 9th. Look for them to thrive in that aspect again tonight.

Individually for the Spurs, most eyes will be on Victor Wembanyama. He’s off to a strong start averaging 18.6 Points, 9.3 Rebounds, 2.5 Assists, 1.0 Steals, and 2.4 Blocks per game. While the raw numbers are great, his shooting percentages are a bit behind, which is typical for rookies, especially those with such high volume early in their career. He’s shooting 43.2% from the field, 28.3% from 3, and 76.6% from the Free Throw line. What gets more interesting is when you break down the shooting splits even further.

  • Restricted-Area: 2.9-of-4.1 (71.1%)
  • Non-Restricted Paint Area: 1.0-of-2.5 (40.7%)
  • Mid-Range: 1.4-of-4.0 (36.4%)
  • Corner 3’s: 0.0-of-0.4 (0%)
  • Above the Break 3’s: 1.5-of-5.0 (30.9%)

Two things stand out to me. 1. The further he gets from the basket, the worse it gets. 2. He shoots a lot of jump shots. His 4 Mid-Range attempts is tied for 13th most per game in the league. If I were the Kings and I had to choose a way for him to try and beat us, I would try and force as many Mid-Range shots as possible.

For the Kings, there are a multitude of areas where they come in with the advantage.

  • Free Throw Attempts
    • Kings 23.3 (13th)
    • Spurs 17.7 (30th)
  • 2nd Chance Points
    • Kings 16.0 (7th)
    • Spurs 14.2 (18th)
  • 2P FG%
    • Kings 56.1% (8th)
    • Spurs 53.6% (16th)

But what intrigues me the most is the combination of Kings Wide-Open 3’s and Spurs Opponent Wide Open 3’s. Sacramento is averaging 23.2 Wide Open 3’s per game, 2nd most in the league. The Spurs are giving up 24.3 Wide Open looks from deep per game, most in the league. As a young team, the Spurs tend to get lost on defense, and with the Kings movement all over the court, they should use that to get as many good looks as they want from 3. Even with the good looks, the Kings will have to knock them down, but the opportunities should be there tonight.

And finally, the Swing Stat of the game. The Spurs may not win much, but they are one of the best teams in the league at passing and moving the ball. They average 29.4 Assists per game, 3rd most in the league. The Kings are a little behind with 26.0 per contest, 10th most, but have 31, 32, 28, and 32 Assists in their last 4 games, and are undefeated when they get at least 28 Assists.

The Spurs are averaging 31.3 Assists in their wins and 28.6 in their losses, so they move the ball around regardless. The Kings are at 30.3 in their wins and 22.5 in their losses. With the fact that it’s a strength of the Spurs and an indicator of the Kings wins and losses, it gets the official swing stat approval for tonight.