Kings vs. Nuggets Preview – By the Numbers

February 14, 2024

The Kings get right back to it against the Nuggets after an extremely difficult loss to the Suns. It’s the 2nd game against Denver in 4 games, with a 3rd game looming shortly after the All-Star break. The good news for the Kings is that they matchup extremely well against the Nuggets, coming into tonight with a 2-0 record against the defending champs.

One thing that stands out in the 2 previous matchups is De’Aaron Fox’s Assist numbers. He has 26 dimes, with 16 in the first game and 10 in the second, well over his season average of 5.4 per game.

Following that trend, last Friday’s game was a prime example of a game where everybody ate for the Kings. It was one of just 3 games this season that they had 7 players score of 10 Points. Monk led the way with 23, Keegan and Sabonis each had 17, Fox and Lyles 15, Huerter 12, and Len 11. The first matchup against Denver follows a similar pattern of multiple players scoring and the ball being spread around as well.

The other trend that shows up against the Nuggets is how much the Kings have dominated the 3-point shooting. In the two games, they’ve shot 33-of-68 (48.5%) from 3, compared to 16-of-54 (29.6%) for the Nuggets. In a season long trend of teams destroying the Kings from 3, the defending champs are the anomaly.

Michael Porter Jr. will be back tonight after missing the last game due to an illness and is the type of shooter who can turn that trend around on his own. If the Kings are hoping to make it 3-0 against Denver, they’ll need to at least keep the 3-point battle close if not win it again tonight.

The other key for tonight may be the availability of Trey Lyles. The Kings bench scored 25 Points last night against the Suns, but 22 of those were from Malik Monk. Davion Mitchell chipped in 3, but that was all from him, Alex Len, Kessler Edwards, and Keon Ellis. The hard part is that it wasn’t just scoring, it was everything across the board.

Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, everything was low from the bench other than Monk. It’s the hard part about so many bench players being defensive guys. It puts so much stress on Monk to be on every game, and even when he is, it sometimes isn’t enough. Here’s hoping that Trey is able to come back for tonight.

Last but not least, the Swing Stat of the game. Most of the time, I try and find something deep in the stats or exciting, especially if I’ve already used the same stat for a certain team.

For tonight, I’m running it back with 3P%. As mentioned above, the Kings have dominated the stat in the first two matchups against the Nuggets. I just don’t see them winning tonight without hitting their 3’s against the defending champs.