Kings vs. Mavericks Preview – By the Numbers

November 19, 2023

The Kings are on a 5 game winning streak and looking to make it 6 against the Mavs, who started out hot but are 3-3 in their last 6 games. Much like in previous years, Dallas has a great offense with the 2nd highest Offensive Rating of 120.5, but have the 25th ranked defense with a 118.5 Defensive Rating. The Kings are coming into this one much more balanced with the 13th ranked offense and 14th ranked defense, so this one has potential to get interesting quick.

I hope everyone is ready for a 3-point shootout, because the Mavs take 43.8 3’s per game and the Kings are right behind them at 42.5. Those are good for the 2nd and 3rd most in the NBA. Dallas comes into the game with the percentage advantage, making them at a 39.0% clip (3rd) while the Kings are at 34.7% (22nd). The Kings will also have a disadvantage if Kevin Huerter, who is currently listed as questionable, is out tonight.

The Mavericks are leading the way in both volume and percentage because they are absolutely loaded with high volume and high percentage 3-point shooters.

  • Luka Doncic: 9.8 Attempts – 42.2%
  • Tim Hardaway Jr.: 9.4 Attempts – 40.2%
  • Kyrie Irving: 7.2 Attempts – 38.9%
  • Grant Williams: 5.8 Attempts – 48.0%

No one loves the Corner 3 more than the Mavs. They lead the league with 12.5 attempts in the corners per game. Sacramento has done a good job of limiting these looks, one of the best in the game, holding opponents to just 7.1 Corner 3’s per game, 6th lowest in the league.

You know what that means, the official Swing Stat of the game is the Corner 3. The Kings are sitting at 5th in the NBA with 10.2 Corner 3’s per contest. With players on both side of the ball being able to break down defenses with Fox, Monk, Luka, and Kyrie, those corner 3’s should fly tonight. I’ll be looking at the Kings to win that battle and put themselves in a good spot to win the game.

Two other areas the Kings should look to exploit are Fastbreak Points and Points in the Paint. Dallas is giving up 17.3 and 56.9 of each, both of which are 2nd most in the league. During the 5-game winning streak, the Kings have averaged 15.6 Fastbreak Points per game, and seem to have an emphasis on pushing the ball when possible.

Sacramento isn’t the highest volume paint scoring team, with 48.7 Points in the Paint per game (17th), but they are one of the best percentage-wise. They shoot 67.9% in the Restricted Area (9th) and 52.0% in the Floater Area (2nd). While this one may turn into a 3-point shooting contest, it will be crucial to get inside if the shots aren’t falling. I don’t know if the Mavs have anyone who can stop Sabonis inside. We could see a lot of double teams that lead to some of those aforementioned Corner 3’s…

This has the feel of a big game. The Mavs came out of the season hot. Fox is leading the NBA with 32.2 Points per night with Luka right behind him at 3rd with 31.0. It’s the type of game that can be used as a measuring stick for both teams. I’m just sitting here enjoying writing about game after game of meaningful Kings basketball, and can’t wait for this one tonight.