Kings vs. Magic Preview – By the Numbers

January 3, 2024

Well, the Kings are back in action after one of the most disheartening games of the season against the Hornets. In a game that looked like they should ease their way into victory, Charlotte came in and stole a game in Sacramento. The Kings will look to rebound against the 19-14 Magic.

Orlando comes into the game with just the 21st ranked offense, but hang their hat on defense with the 5th best Defensive Rating in the league. They don’t have otherworldly defensive shooting numbers, holding opponents to 47.3% from the field and 36.3% from beyond the arc. Those are good numbers, but they rank 14th and 18th, respectfully.

Where they really excel is limiting opponents 2nd Chance Point opportunities. They only give up 9.2 Offensive Rebounds, fewest in the league, and hold opponents to 13.0 2nd Chance Points per game, 6th fewest in the NBA. In their last 4 games, the Kings have had 22, 15, 11, and 17 2nd Chance Points, and are 12-4 when they have at least 14.

What’s difficult about the Magic is that they rebound as a team. Paolo Banchero leads the team with 7.2, which is relatively low, but they have 7 players averaging 4 or more boards per game. For comparison, the Kings only have 4 players averaging 4 or more boards per game (Sabonis, Keegan, Lyles, and Fox). 2nd Chance Points has been one of their superpowers this season, but that may be hard to do tonight against the Magic.

Paolo isn’t just leading Orlando in Rebounds, but he’s leading the way with 21.8 Points and 4.7 Assists as well. He’s seen a drastic uptick in his shooting percentages from his rookie season, raising his FG% from 42.7% to 46.2% and his 3P% from 29.8% to 35.8%. He does a little bit of everything on the court, and will likely get Keegan’s responsibility to guard tonight.

Another area to watch for the Magic is their scoring inside. They love to get inside and limit their looks from beyond the arc. They are the ONLY team in the league that shoot more shots in the Restricted Area, 31.3, than they do from deep, 30.2.

That has bad matchup written all over for the Kings, who are allowing opponents to shoot 67.3% at the rim this year, tied for 6th highest in the league. Sacramento will either need to up their interior defense tonight, or force the Magic to become a 3-point shooting team.

The other area of focus and hot topic will be that the Kings have yet to win on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. It’s not only that they haven’t won a game yet, it’s that they’ve looked pretty terrible in the 4 such games so far.

If they have another bad loss tonight in the 2nd night of a back to back, on the heels of last night’s loss to the Hornets? I fear for the reaction that most fans will have. For the sanity of Sacramento fans out there, please let this one at least be a close contest.