Kings vs. Lakers Preview – By the Numbers

November 15, 2023

In the aftermath of one of the wildest nights in recent NBA history, the Kings head down south to face the Lakers. Los Angeles is playing on the second night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 nights, where as this will only be the Kings 2nd game in 5 nights. Rest advantage was a very weird issue last year, so let’s hope that was a one year blip and not something we have to worry about over and over again.

The Lakers come into the with the 17th ranked offense and 20th ranked defense. They are struggling to mesh and once again don’t have the shooting necessary in today’s NBA. They only shoot 29.5 3’s per game, 3rd least in the league, and make them at a 34.0% clip, 23rd. They are only making 10 3’s per contest. The Kings for comparison are making 14.2 per game, 5th most in the league.

The Kings take a lot of 3’s to get to that number (42.3 per game, 3rd most), but they go in with the clear advantage beyond the arc. We were all just reminded what can happen with this offense when everyone is hitting on all cylinders. If they can do anything close to their 20-of-42 (47.6%) performance against the Cavs, this one could get out of hand quick.

What the Lakers lack from beyond the arc though, they make up for in multiple other areas. They constantly win the Free Throw battle, averaging 26.5 FT’s per game, 5th most, and holding opponents to 18.7 per contest, fewest in the league. The Kings have been a very bad Free Throw shooting team this year, converting on just 71.8% of their attempts for the 3rd worst rate in the league. If the shots from deep aren’t falling, they’ll need to take advantage of their FT’s to make up for it and limit that advantage for the Lakers.

The other thing that Los Angeles does well as a by product to their limited 3-point shooting is scoring in the paint. They are averaging 53.5 Points in the Paint per game, 6th most in the NBA. Sacramento has done a better job this year holding opponents to 51.1 Points in the Paint per contest, which ranks 20th in the league. Last year they finished at 53.5, good for 26th. So, progress?

Even if the Lakers score 60+ Points in the Paint though, I think the Kings can walk away with the win. It becomes a problem if they are scoring that much inside and hitting shots from deep. I always say it, but you can’t let team excel in areas that they have weaknesses in.

And now for my favorite part of the article, the swing stat of the game. In their first matchup, the Lakers scored 22 Fastbreak Points to the Kings 7. The Lakers thrive in the open court and are sitting at 10th with 15.7 Fastbreak Points per game. The Kings are still last in the league at 9.6, but the intensity to move up the court quickly has looked better the last few game. For the swing stat, I don’t need the Kings to win it, but keep it within 5 or so to keep that battle close.

If all else fails, just give the ball to De’Aaron Fox. He’s averaging 30.5 Points, 6.0 Assists, 3.8 Rebounds, 1.3 Steals while shooting 50% from the field and 36.7% from 3. He is establishing himself as a superstar in this league. With the game on ESPN, he can put the world on notice once again tonight.