Kings vs. Lakers Preview – By the Numbers

October 29, 2023

Good news everyone, the Kings don’t have to play Stephen Curry today. That seems like a win in and of itself. Instead they get LeBron James and company coming into to Golden 1 Center looking to build off of their first win against the Suns.

Surprise, the Lakers still suck at shooting 3’s! After two games, they are last in the league with a 25.9% 3P% on an NBA low 29 attempts per game. The Kings meanwhile have shot the most 3’s out of all teams with 45.5 per contest, but are just 18th at making them at a 34.1% clip.

It’s just two games so far, so these numbers will likely shift, but I think they are enough to show the philosophy and make-up of a team. The Lakers aren’t built to shoot and make a ton of threes. Darvin Ham proclaimed that he wanted Anthony Davis to take 6 per game, but he’s sitting at just 2 (2-of 4 total on the season). It’s been D’Angelo Russell (6.0 att/gm) leading the way with volume and Taurean Prince (57.1%) leading the way with accuracy for the Lakers. Russell is a certified Kings killer and will need to be held in check for Sacramento to have a chance in this one.

So if the Lakers aren’t going to score on the perimeter, how will they score? Glad you asked. Much like last year, they are showing they are an elite team in transition and in the paint.

Los Angeles is scoring a staggering 23.5 Points off of Turnovers (2nd) and 18.0 Fastbreak Points per game (t-4th). They are long, athletic, and fast, and use that to their advantage as much as they can. The Kings have done a good job of taking care of the ball early on this season, with only 13 Turnovers per game (8th least). That officially makes Turnovers my swing stat of the game. If the Kings can limit their giveaways and Lakers opportunities in transition, they’ll be taking away a huge facet of Los Angeles’ offense. In a two for one situation, the Kings will help themselves on both sides of the ball.

The area of the game that looks terrifying on paper is defending the paint. Los Angeles is averaging 59 Points in the Paint (2nd) and the Kings are giving up 54 (t-5th most). Interior defense was a problem spot last year, and may be again this year. In the first two games so far this season, the Jazz and Warriors combined to shoot 77.5% at the rim, the 2nd highest mark in the league so far. For reference, the Pelicans allowed the highest Restricted Area FG% of 71.2% last year, and the Kings were 6th at 68.7%. All of this goes to show that the Lakers can really get going from inside tonight with ease.

The good news is that even if they do score 60+ Points in the Paint, I think the Kings can still win. With the Lakers low 3-point volume and accuracy, it leaves an open door for the Kings to give up big points inside but offset it with winning the perimeter battle.

For them to do that, one of the players who has to get back on track is Kevin Huerter. He’s 1-of-10 (10%) from 3 so far this season after finishing last year at 40.2%. He’s clearly pressing on both sides of the ball. Huerter did a great job last year at finding ways to score and contribute when his 3-pointer wasn’t falling, as shown by his career high 60.4% 2P FG%.

That hasn’t been the case this year so far though, as he’s only taken 2 shots at the rim (2-of-2) and 2 Mid-Range FG’s (0-of-2). I’d look for him to get something going downhill and around the basket just to see something go in rather than just looking at perimeter shots. Huerter has the offensive firepower to carry the team on any given night. Him getting back on track again the Lakers seems like a pretty great opportunity in my book.