Kings vs. Jazz Preview – By the Numbers

October 25, 2023

We! Are! Back!

The Kings head to Utah to face the Jazz to start the season as they look to build on their record setting year. The emphasis of preseason was defense, but there are a lot of things to look at for this game in all facets of the game. Preseason numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but with them and a look back at last year, let’s see what this game might look like by the numbers.

While the focus is on defense, it’s safe to say that if the Kings don’t hit their shots, it’s going to be hard to win. In the preseason, they shot just 31.0% from beyond the arc, good for 28th out of the 35 teams to participate in preseason games (international teams included). De’Aaron Fox (17.6%), Malik Monk (26.1%), Kevin Huerter (22.7%), Harrison Barnes (27.8%) and Sasha Vezenkov (27.3%) all struggled from 3. They don’t all have to improve immediately as the season gets under way, but if they all start in a slump it’s going to be hard to win no matter how good your defense is.

I’ll hold off any criticism of this team’s shooting until at least 8 games into the season. Sasha aside, these players all have proven track records. I’m more than confident that they’ll be fine from 3 once the season gets rolling.

In terms of the defense that everyone is talking about, the main point of emphasis that I’ll be looking for on the stats side is protecting the paint.

Last season, the Kings gave up 53.5 Points in the Paint per game, 5th most in the NBA, and allowed opponents to shoot 68.7% in the Restricted Area, 6th highest. Those numbers both went down in the Preseason – 48.0 and 63.7% – but until it happens in the real games, it will be a key to watch.

The Jazz should be a very telling opponent to test out the new paint defense, as they scored 53.1 Points in the Paint last season (10th) and 53.2 in the preseason (2nd). They also added John Collins, who shot 75.5% in the Restricted Area last season, 22nd out of 243 players with at least 100 attempts.

Collins is uber-athletic, loves to dunk, and creates a very interesting pairing with Lauri Markkanen. They can both get going inside, from the mid-range, and from beyond the arc. Throw in Walker Kessler’s 2.3 Blocks last year and they have some very intriguing front court depth.

An area that the Kings should be able to take advantage of, assuming some trends follow over from last year, is the Steal and Turnover battles.

Last season, the Jazz were last in the league with only 6.1 Steals, and had the 3rd most Turnovers with 15.4 per game. The Kings had 7.0 (22nd) and 13.5 (22nd) of each per game. Fox appeared to be on a tear on the defensive side of the ball in the preseason, and I made the bold prediction that he’s going to lead the league in Steals this year.

If this one is close, it may come down to a possession battle. If the Kings can squeak out a few extra possessions by grabbing an extra Steal or two, or holding on to the ball more, that may be enough to edge out the Jazz.

Either way, enjoy it folks. Kings basketball is back. There are new stats on the horizon, and the Beam is ready to be lit once again.