Kings vs. Hawks Preview – By the Numbers

January 22, 2024

The Kings are struggling. Losers of 4 games in a row, they welcome in the 18-24 Atlanta Hawks who have won 3 of their last 4 games. Trae Young has been ruled out for the game tonight, but that hasn’t stopped Atlanta before, as they’ve won 2 of the 3 games he’s missed so far this season.

Trae Young has the 11th highest Usage Rate at 30.0%, so they are bound to look different without him on the court.

When Trae is out, Murray steps up not only with his scoring but with his facilitating as well. I know the joke with the Kings is that they are going to lose when opponents best players are out, but the Hawks without Young should not be taken lightly.

Something they do so well regardless of the lead guard is crash the offensive glass. Atlanta leads the league with 13.0 Offensive Rebounds per game, thanks in large part to Clint Capela. No one grabs more than his 4.8 Offensive Rebounds per contest, and it’s really not close, with Rudy Gobert being 2nd with 3.5.

In the last matchup between these two teams, the Hawks outrebounded the Kings 18-5 on the offensive boards and won the 2nd Chance Points battle 26-11. The Kings were able to come back and win the game thanks to their hot shooting in the 2nd half (10-of-20, 50%, from 3 in the 2nd half), but they’ll need to be more disciplined on the boards tonight to limit a strong suite of the Hawks.

For the Kings, Kevin Huerter has been on an absolute heater in his last 3 games. He’s shot 55.6% from beyond the arc (15-of-27) in the last 3 contests and looks like the player from last year who was deadly in the DHO game.

When him and Sabonis get their connection going, it opens up not only the shooting from Huerter, but the drop off game to Sabonis off of the action as well as the 2-point game of Huerter. In the same 3-game stretch, Huerter has shot 76.9% on his 2P FGAs.

As a reminder, he shot a career high 60.4% from inside the arc last season. His inside game is sneaky great, and while the 3-point shooting for Huerter is the main topic, his 2-point game getting back on track is just as big for this team.

Last but not least, the Swing Stat of the game. Free Throws are the hot topic in Sacramento, with the Kings trailing the NBA with a 72.5% FT%. The last two games have been particularly bad with the Kings going 25-of-44 (56.8%) from the line.

Trae Young leads the Hawks with 8.2 FTAs per game, but the next closest is De’Andre Hunter with 3.1 (who is also out tonight). Murray is likely going to get more attempts than his season average of 2.9 per game with Young out, but the Hawks don’t have multiple guys that can get to the line.

That leads to the Swing Stat being made Free Throws. Not FT%, but amount made. I think the Hawks will have a better percentage, but the Kings should have the advantage in volume tonight. For the sake of Kings socials, please don’t lose another game due to the poor Free Throw shooting.