Kings vs. Cavaliers Preview – By the Numbers

February 5, 2024

The Kings finish up their longest road trip of the season against the hottest team in the league. Winners of 5 straight and 13 of their last 14, the Cavaliers come into the game with a 115.3 Offensive Rating (17th), 110.5 (2nd) Defensive Rating, and 4.7 (7th) Net Rating on the season.

In their last 14 games though, those numbers jump to 120.1, 104.3, and 15.8. For reference, the Celtics lead the league with a 9.8 Net Rating on the season. Those ratings over the 15 game stretch would rank 3rd, 1st, and 1st. Simply said, the Cavs are BALLING.

Donovan Mitchell is once again leading the way and having an extremely underrated season. He’s averaging 28.2 Points, 5.5 Rebounds, 6.4 Assists, and 1.9 Steals on 46.9/35.1/85.6% shooting splits. He brings it on both ends of the court and scores in a multitude of ways. The good news for the Kings is that they have someone who slowed him down earlier this season.

In the first matchup this season, Keegan Murray guarded Mitchell for 9:47 minutes and held him to 5 Points on 2-of-10 (20.0%) shooting. Even better, he didn’t foul him once. I assume that will be the strategy tonight as well to try and slow down the All-Star guard.

On defense, the Cavs are extremely difficult to score on inside. They hold opponents to just 46.6 Points in the Paint per game, 4th fewest in the league. The Kings though scored 52 Points inside against them in the first matchup, taking huge advantage of the Floater Area. The shot 19-of-22 (86.4%) in the zone, compared to 7-of-12 (58.3%) in the Restricted Area.

Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley loom large at the rim, helping hold opponents to 61.4% shooting at the rim, the 2nd lowest mark in the NBA. The Kings have the best float-game in the NBA, shooting a league high 48.9% in the zone. Stopping just short of the basket worked great for them last time, and would be a good strategy to try again.

Even if the Kings are able to get some inside scoring going, they are going to have to hit their 3’s. They shot 20-of-42 (47.6%) in the first matchup to help lead them to the win. That follows a season long trend for the Cavs. Their opponents almost have to knock down their 3’s at a high clip to win.

In Cleveland’s wins, they hold their opponents to 32.4% shooting from beyond the arc. In their losses, their opponents shoot 41.5% from deep. That officially makes 3P% the Swing Stat of the game. Against one of if not the best defenses in the league, the Kings will have to make their shots tonight. Sometimes it’s just as simple as that.