Kings vs. Cavaliers Preview – By the Numbers

November 13, 2023

In their first game against an Eastern Conference opponent, the Kings welcome the Cavaliers into Golden 1 Center before heading out for a 6-game road trip. Cleveland had a strong season last year, but are off to just a 4-5 start this season. They come in with the 25th ranked offense, 11th ranked defense, and 18th ranked Net Rating. Let’s dig into the numbers to see what might happen tonight.

It’s hard to talk about the Cavs without starting with Donovan Mitchell. Somehow he just keeps getting better in his 7th NBA season. He’s currently averaging career highs in the following traditional stats: 29.5 Points, 5.1 Rebounds, 5.5 Assists, 2.3 Steals, 0.6 Blocks, 48.6% from the field, and 88.9% from the Free Throw line. So…pretty much everything. He’s doing a great job at getting all the way to the rim, shooting 6.1 times in the Restricted Area per game at a 75.5% clip. That’s tied for the 12th most attempts at the rim per contest in the league.

The question for me with the Cavs is can the ‘Others’ score enough on top of what Mitchell provides? After Mitchell’s 29.5 Points per game, the next highest scorer is Caris LeVert at 18.8. It’s almost a guarantee that Donovan will get his, but you can’t let multiple players go off simultaneously.

Where Cleveland loves to do most of their damage is in transition. They average 8.3 Steals per game, 11th most in the league, but use it to garner 19.2 Points off Turnovers, 8th most. Sacramento is tied for 14th with 14.5 Turnovers per game and are giving up 18.3 Points off of them. As long as they stay around those averages, they should be ok for the night, but you can’t rack up giveaways against this team and let them get too many easy buckets.

For what is quickly becoming my favorite part of these preview articles, the Swing Stat of the Game. The Cavs are one of the worst Mid-Range shooting teams in the league early on this year, in both volume and percentage. They are shooting 7.1 shots in the area per game, 3rd fewest, and making them at a 32.8% clip, 2nd worst. On the season, the Kings aren’t fairing much better, but that’s because with De’Aaron Fox out, the Kings lose a huge advantage in that zone. In the last five games without Fox, the Kings have shot 2.4-of-7.6 (31.6%) per game from Mid-Range, as compared to 3.3-of-9.0 (37.0%) in the first three games with Fox.

Cleveland has one of the best interior defenses in the NBA, holding opponents to 57.8% in the Restricted Area (4th lowest) and 37.3% in the floater area (7th lowest). Getting into the paint against this team with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is a tough challenge. That’s what officially makes the Mid-Range shooting the swing stat of the game. If Fox is in, he could carve them up from that range. If he’s out, I would look for Monk, Davion, Huerter or Sabonis pick up some volume of shots there.

If Sacramento is unable to hit from inside or from the mid-range, they’ll have to rely on their 3-point shot. Thankfully Keegan Murray joined Huerter in the slump buster category late on Friday’s game against OKC. He only shot 3-of-10 in the game, but was 3-of-5 in the 2nd half. He shot with confidence and didn’t hesitate. Keegan has been great in different facets of the game this year, but when he’s hitting his shot from outside, this offense hits a whole other gear.

The other area that the Kings go in with a big advantage is 2nd Chance Points, which is quickly becoming a strength of this year’s team. They’ve scored 23, 26, and 19 putback points in the last 3 games, and are up to 7th in the league with 16.6 per game. Cleveland is allowing 16.0 per contest, tied for 8th most in the NBA. It’s a surprising stat given how tall and lengthy the Cavs are, but the Kings should be looking to take advantage anywhere they can. With Keegan and Huerter hitting the glass hard this year, and Sabonis 2nd in the league with 12.9 Rebounds per game, they are quietly unleashing a new look into their offense.