Keegan Murray – The Kings Ultimate X-Factor

October 24, 2023

Keegan Murray was really good last year. 206 made 3’s, record-setting good in case you forgot. What you may have missed is how much his scoring and production helped the Kings win. The Kings were 12-1 last season when Murray scored at least 20 Points, showing that he was already an X-Factor in his first season.

Keegan is primed for a breakout year two, and when you look deeper into his game and stats, there is a clear avenue toward stardom. If he can improve a few areas of his game, it could propel the Kings into title contenders. Yup, I said it, and I mean it. Let’s take a look at 3 of the biggest areas that Keegan can improve in his sophomore season.

1. Off the dribble shot creation

Sacramento’s offense was so potent last year that they didn’t have to ask much from Keegan other than knocking down his open shots, which he did spectacularly. With the offense running through De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, and even Malik Monk when he came off the bench, the Kings had multiple table setters on the floor all game, allowing Keegan to focus on finding the empty space on the perimeter and make teams pay for leaving him. Murray thrived in the role, finishing the year with a 41.1% 3P% on a high volume of 6.3 attempts per game.

What we rarely saw was Keegan creating looks for himself. Of his 354 Field Goals, 306 of them were Assisted and only 48 were Unassisted. If you look at his 206 3-pointers, it’s even more drastic with 201 Assisted and 5 Unassisted. This leaves a huge avenue for not only Keegan, but Sacramento to unlock an untapped portion of their already high-powered offense.

The encouraging stat and reason I think we’ll see a jump in Murray’s self-creation in year two is his Catch and Shoot vs. Pull Up shooting percentages from year one.

  • Catch and Shoot FG%: 41.1%
  • Pull Up FG%: 44.0%

The 3-point looks are just as encouraging.

  • Catch and Shoot 3P%: 41.3%
  • Pull Up 3P%: 40.0%

The percentages are already where you want to see them. If the volume follows suit in year two, the Kings would add another weapon to an already historically great offense. Just like with the Assisted/Unassisted stat, only 35 of Keegan’s 501 3PA’s were Pull Up 3’s. I expect that number to go up in his sophomore season.

2. Scoring Inside the Arc

Keegan’s 3-point record is extremely impressive, but for him to flourish and become an All-Star, he’ll have to expand his game to be more than just a shooter. Only 281 of his 782 (35.9%) Field Goal Attempts were inside the arc in his rookie season. When he did get inside, he didn’t have the most success either. On the season he had a 2P FG% of 52.7% with the following zone splits:

  • Restricted Area: 63.3%
  • Non-Restricted Paint Area: 39.1%
  • Mid-Range: 35.6%

Just like with the Catch and Shoot and Pull Up numbers, there are encouraging signs hidden in last year’s stats that point to a jump for the young wing. In the playoffs, 26 of Keegan’s 58 FGA’s were 2P attempts, good for 44.8% of his looks. Especially at the end of the series, Keegan was showing comfortability with working off of Sabonis screens to get easy Pull Up looks inside the arc. The Restricted Area percentage doesn’t jump, but the other two spots on the floor take a big bump in the playoff numbers:

  • Restricted Area: 46.2%
  • Non-Restricted Paint Area: 57.1%
  • Mid-Range: 66.7%

As a reminder, the Kings had the best 2P FG% in league history last year at 58.6%. It’s not unrealistic to think that Sacramento could break that record a second year in a row as Keegan opens up more of his inside game.

3. Rebounding

This one may seem simple but would go a long way to help the team win. Sabonis is one of the best rebounders in the league, but Sacramento needs more help on the boards from everyone else on the team. In the 7 games (Regular Season and Playoffs) that Keegan recorded 10+ Rebounds, the Kings went 6-1, so the correlation to his rebounds and winning has already been proven.

Bringing back Harrison Barnes is great for the Kings, but it is extremely unlikely that he becomes a huge rebounding threat in his 12th season. With 4.5 Rebounds per game last year, and 5.0 in his career, that may be all that you get from the veteran.

Keegan has more potential to improve upon his 4.6 boards per game that he grabbed his rookie year. It won’t be as much of a headline if that number jumps to 6-7, but just like the increased scoring or shooting, will go a long way in helping the team win.