Kings vs. Thunder Preview – By the Numbers (11/10/23)

November 10, 2023

Welcome to the In-Season Tournament! The Kings got back in the win column on Wednesday against the Trail Blazers, and the Thunder come in winning their last two games against the Cavaliers and Hawks and a 5-3 record on the season. This game is going to be much more of a challenge for Sacramento without De’Aaron Fox, but there are some avenues that they could get the win in this one.

OKC can light it up on offense. They’re shooting 39.3% from beyond the arc, 2nd only to the Mavs 39.7%. What makes them interesting is that while they are at the top of the league in percentage, they are 22nd in the league with 31.5 attempts. We always talk about this for the Kings, and it shows for the Thunder as well. They only take good looks from deep. They are averaging 21.1 Wide-Open 3’s per game, 5th most in the league, and only 1.1 Tightly contested attempts, fewest in the league.

The other reason their percentage is so high is that they have a myriad of players who will hurt you from behind the line. Chet Holmgren is sitting at 55.6%, Lu Dort is at 52.5% (up from 33.0% last season), and Isaiah Joe is at 39.6% on a nice volume of 6 attempts per game. This game could turn into a shootout quick, and if it does, the Kings will need to hit their 3’s in order to keep up.

An area they should use to their advantage is the Corner 3. OKC allows the most attempts there per game with 12.4, and the Kings take 9.3 per contest, 10th most. The Kings are shooting better from the corner (36.9%) than above the break (31.6%), so those looks could be crucial tonight. Harrison Barnes has been money from that spot to start the season, making 64.3% of his corner attempts.

The other good news for the Kings is that Kevin Huerter has quietly gotten out of his early season slump. In the last two games, he’s shot 7-of-17 (41.2%) from 3. He’s the type of player who when he gets going, he can absolutely carry a team on his own. Keegan Murray is still looking to get back on track, averaging 25% on the season so far. With Fox out, Keegan may get the Lu Dort defensive assignment. If so, Keegan would have the height advantage, but that’s a tough matchup for anyone in the NBA.

There is an obvious advantage for the Kings in this one, and if they hope to win, they’ll have to exploit it. The Thunder are not a good rebounding team. They average 41.8 boards per game (25th) and 7.5 Offensive Rebounds (30th). They allow 46.9 Rebounds per game (6th most) and 14.4 Offensive Rebounds (1st).

Sacramento is coming off of a game in which they secured 15 Offensive Rebounds and turned them into a season high 26 2nd Chance Points. The Thunder give up 17.4 2nd Chance Points per game (4th most), while the Kings limit their opponents to just 11.1 (2nd fewest). That officially makes 2nd Chance Points the Swing Stat of the game. In most swing stats, it’s ‘win the stat,’ but tonight, I need the Kings to dominate the stat. If they can beat the Thunder by 8ish 2nd Chance Points, they should put themselves in a good position to win the game.