Kings vs. Rockets Preview – By the Numbers (11/6/23)

November 6, 2023

After an extremely disappointing 107-89 loss on Saturday, the Kings have a chance for revenge tonight against the Houston Rockets. While the game was close most of the way through until the Rockets pulled away at the end, it had the feeling of a game that the Kings were never going to win from the jump. Going into last game, there were numerous areas where the Kings looked like they would have an advantage, but they lost almost every single category. Let’s hope for better results tonight.

Saturday’s swing stat was scoring in the Restricted Area, and the Rockets ran away with it early. The two teams ended relatively close: Kings 11-of-18 (61.1%), Rockets 14-of-22 (63.6%), but it was the first half that the Rockets took it to the teeth of the Kings defense. They shot 9-of-11 (81.8%) from the area with easy bucket after easy bucket. The Kings interior defensive effort picked up in the second half, but they were unable to climb out of the hole they dug early.

Individually for Houston, it was Dillon Brooks who led the way with 26 Points, 9 Rebounds, 1 Assist, and 1 Steal. he shot 9-of-14 (64.3%) from the field, 2-of-4 (50%) from beyond the arc, and a perfect 6-of-6 from the Free Throw line. You expect for him to be a pest on defense, but seeing him lead the way on offense is extremely disheartening.

The hard part was that Brooks was also that defensive presence, holding the Kings to only 7-of-18 (38.9%) from the field on the shots he defended. Houston even put Brooks on Sabonis for stretches. Sabonis was 3-of-3 when guarded by the pesky guard, so if Houston wants to do that more, the Kings should look to take advantage.

Brooks made it tough for his opponents, but even when the Kings got shots up against other Rockets defenders, they didn’t fair much better. They shot a season low 38.1% from the field, a season low 26.8% from 3, attempted a season low 19 FT’s, and had a season low 20 Assists. That’s a lot of season lows for one game.

The Kings offense looked broken on Saturday. They didn’t have an offensive flow and looked taken out of their game. In the first three games this season, they were able to turn to De’Aaron Fox to go and get a basket. With him out, they don’t have anyone who can repeatedly go get his own shot, and the offensive struggles without the star guard show in the numbers. So far this year, the Kings have an Offensive Rating of 119.9 in the 106 minutes that Fox has played. That drops to 99.3 for the 139 minutes he hasn’t played, good for a difference of 20.6.

It’s a much different case than last year, when the Kings had Offensive Ratings of 119.9 with Fox and 112.6 without him, a 7.4 difference. Still better with him on the court, but they were able to survive, and looking at Fox’s +2.4 Off Court Net Rating, win those minutes. This season though, that Off Court Net Rating is -12.4. They are getting destroyed without Fox.

So how can they fix it? Hitting their threes seems to be the simplest solution. A myriad of players are slumping to start the season, including Sacramento’s two high volume 3-point shooters Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter. Keegan has started 11-of-44 (25.0%) and Huerter has started 5-of-25 (20.0%). Both of them are working extremely hard on the defensive side of the ball, but their bread and butter is their shooting.

If those two don’t get going tonight, I would try and get Harrison Barnes more looks from deep. He’s started the season 13-of-24 (54.2%) from beyond the arc, including going 3-of-4 (75%) against the Rockets on Saturday.

Tonight should be a good test to see how Sacramento comes out. Ideally, we’ll see a determined team that creates good looks and knocks them down at a decent clip. If not, we better hope that Fox’s ankle heals quick.