Kings vs. Rockets Preview – By the Numbers (11/4/23)

November 4, 2023

The Kings don’t have to face the Warriors! (For 24 more days…). But until then, it feels like a reprieve to write about another team. The Rockets are young and spunky, and should not be taken lightly by any means. Let’s get into what tonight’s game might look like by the numbers.

Dating back to last season, one of the Kings biggest issues has been their interior defense. So far this year, their opponents are shooting 73.4% in the Restricted Area, the 3rd highest percent in the league. Last year they were at 68.7%, the 6th highest clip. Sacramento doesn’t have to be the best rim protecting team in the NBA, but they can’t continue the 73.4% allowance.

The good news for the Kings is that the Rockets are shooting just 59.3% at the rim, the 4th lowest mark so far this season. If you flip those stats for the Rockets, they are allowing teams to shoot 71.7% at the rim (5th highest), and the Kings are shooting 67.1% (15th).

That officially makes Restricted Area scoring my swing stat of the game. Without De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento will have to have other players get into the rim and finish. Domantas Sabonis has the potential to feast inside tonight against Alperen Sengun, (71.0% Opponent RA FG%), and is a matchup the Kings should look to take advantage of.

Another area where the Kings have a clear advantage is on the boards. The Rockets are only grabbing 38.5 Rebounds per game, fewest in the NBA. The Kings aren’t setting records with their 45.3 (13th) per contest, but they should look to dominate on the glass in these next two games.

Due to their inability to rebound, the Rockets are giving up 18.3 Second Chance Points per game, tied for most in the league. Sabonis is one of the best offensive rebounders in the game and could get an easy 4-8 Points just by cleaning up the glass tonight.

Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter both have a newfound pension for hitting the glass, averaging 7.3 and 5.8 each, respectfully, per game. Those are up from 4.6 and 3.3 from last year, and a great early sign in this young season. Jabari Smith Jr. is a great rebounder, 7.0 per game, so him and Keegan on the boards could be a sneakily important battle to keep an eye on.

One final thing I’ll be looking for tonight is the Kings to get out and run. This one isn’t necessarily based on the matchup with the Rockets, but the Kings are last in the league with only 8.0 Fastbreak Points per game. For a team with that is as fast and athletic as they are, that is way too low of a number. I know the emphasis has been defense, but Fastbreak Points lead to easy buckets, which are key for any good offense.