Kings vs. Warriors Preview – By the Numbers (11/1/23)

November 1, 2023

After a one game reprieve, the Kings get to face Stephen Curry again. Great. But the good news is they’ll have a break after this until November 28th? I guess I’ll take it. Sample sizes are getting bigger and numbers are becoming more prominent. Let’s see what tonight’s game has in store!

Steph is on an absolute terror to start this season, with 27, 41, 24, and 42 Points in his four games so far. That 41 piece against the Kings came on 7-of-10 (70%) shooting from beyond the arc, 7-of-9 (77.8%) inside the arc, and a perfect 6-of-6 from the Free Throw line. He is getting any shot he wants and making teams pay from all over the court. It’s that reason that I come into tonight with the thought of make someone else beat you.

The second leading scorer behind Steph’s 33.5 per game is Klay Thompson, who is probable for tonight, at 17.3. After that it drops to 11.3 for Chris Paul, 11.0 for Jonathan Kuminga, and 10.8 for Andrew Wiggins. CP3, Klay, and Wiggins all could have a big game to beat the Kings tonight, but I’d rather that happen than Steph go for 40+ yet again. Blitz him, take the ball out of his hands, whatever you have to do to make the other Warriors take over this game.

While that sounds good like a decent plan, it comes with two caveats: 1. Steph is really freaking good and can torch a team even with that strategy. 2. The Warriors have been an even better team with Steph off the court than on the court.

That’s right, you read that correctly. The Warriors have been better with the 2nd leading scorer in the league off the floor than on. In the 127 minutes Steph has played, the Warriors have a +/- total of +12. In the 65 minutes he hasn’t played, they are +31. The narrative all of last year was to try and take advantage of the non-Steph minutes. That narrative is dead. By staggering Steph and CP3’s minutes, Paul is absolutely torching 2nd units.

This is where the 2nd caveat comes into play. Make Chris Paul beat you as a scorer. He’s currently tied for 7th in the NBA with 8.3 Assists per game and had 12 last week against the Kings. Go under screens, force him to finish at the rim, do whatever it takes to make him score to beat you. With Davion Mitchell starting, it will likely be Colby Jones, Malik Monk, or Chris Duarte who get the task of guarding of checking the future hall of famer. Jones looks like he has some serious defensive chops, but that’s a lot to ask a rookie in their first meaningful minutes in the NBA. I’ll be watching that matchup closely tonight.

For the Kings, they continue to put up a high number of 3’s, leading the league with 46.3 per game. It comes as no surprise that the one game they lost to the Warriors they only went 12-of-40 (30.0%). I don’t think this is the case for every team in the league, but I think for the Kings to beat Golden State, they have to hit their 3’s. Obvious, I know, but sometimes the simple answer is the right one.

With De’Aaron Fox out with his ankle sprain, Sacramento will be searching for a way to make up for his 31.3 Points, 6.0 Assists, and 4.3 Rebounds per game. Easier said than done. In my first every Patreon article (https://willzstats.com/a-look-back-the-2022-23-season-games-without-deaaron-fox/), I took a deep dive to see how the Kings did in the 9 games Fox missed last season.

Kevin Huerter led the way with 19.5 Points per game, but it was really a fill in by committee approach. Fox is so good that no single player can replace him. Everyone will have to step up and do a little more with the All-Star guard out.

The one exception is Keegan Murray. If there were any player who could come in and catch fire for a stretch of games, I think it would be Keegan. All the talk of the offseason and early season so far has been his new-found aggressiveness. What better way to put that to the test than against Golden State with Fox out.