Kings vs. Warriors Preview – By the Numbers

October 27, 2023

The Kings come back to Sacramento looking to not only extend their record to 2-0 but to exact revenge on the Warriors after last year’s playoff series. In what is sure to be a raucous environment, the Warriors will be looking for their first win after falling to the Suns in their home opener. Once again, the sample size is miniscule, but let’s see what this game might look like by the numbers.

I know it’s simple, but this one may come down to the 3-point shot. Expect both of these teams to get up their shots from long range. The Kings shot 51 3’s in game 1, and the Warriors shot 43. The difference between those two games is that the Kings made them and the Warriors didn’t: 19-of-51 (37.3%) vs. 10-of-43 (23.3%).

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Chris Paul all struggled from beyond the arc, shooting a combined 7-of-21 (22.6%). I don’t expect all three of them to struggle again, so be on the lookout for a bounce back game from at least one of the three in terms of efficiency with the long ball.

If the Warriors do get going from outside, it will be vital for the Kings to limit their production in the paint. After giving up 64 Points in the Paint to the Jazz, all eyes should be on that number as the season gets under way. The Warriors put up 44 Points in the Paint against the Suns, but did most of their damage in the floater area instead of at the rim.

Only 12 of their 47 paint FG’s came at the rim. For reference, the Kings shot 22 of their 42 paint FG’s at the rim against the Jazz. If you read my preview articles last year, you know that Chris Paul doesn’t want to get all the way to the basket, with only 26 FGA’s at the rim all last year. If he’s driving, look for a stop and pop or a dish off to the a roller or cutter.

The other key matchup to watch other than the guard play will be Domantas Sabonis vs Kevon Looney. In the 10 games they faced each other last year, Sabonis shot 37-of-75 (49.3%) from the field on his shots defended by Looney. A far cry from his 61.5% FG% on the season last year. And according to NBA.com’s matchup stats, Looney only fouled Sabonis 4 times.

Kevon is one of the best interior defenders in the game. He may not block shots, but he is big, long, and disciplined. He does a great job of contesting with verticality, and that’s exactly why I’m not looking for a big revenge game from Sabonis.

The Kings have so many different ways to score, as shown on opening night with Barnes’ 33 piece. If they can score elsewhere with better matchups, take advantage of those instead of trying to force the issue inside.

With Golden State starting Curry, Klay, and Paul, that means that one of them will be guarding either Barnes of Keegan Murray, creating a clear height advantage for the Kings. It doesn’t have to be iso ball, but it would seem advantageous for the Kings to go to whichever matchup that ends up being.