Kings vs. Nuggets Preview – By the Numbers

February 9, 2024

Well, the trade deadline is over and the Kings roster remains the same. We can talk about what they should have done or could have done, but that won’t change the fact that this team is here to stay. I believe the team can compete with anyone on any given night, including the defending champion Nuggets tonight, who come into the game with the 8th ranked offense and 10th ranked defense.

Nikola Jokic is continuing his run as one of the best basketball players on the planets. The 2-time MVP is averaging 26.3 Points, 12.2 Rebounds, 9.0 Assists, 1.2 Steals, and 1.0 Blocks per game on 58.4/36.1/81.9% shooting splits. He does absolutely everything on the court and just makes everything look so easy.

In the previous matchup, Jokic had 36 Points, 13 Rebounds, 14 Assists, 2 Steals, and 1 Block, but it was the Kings that walked away with the win. In the battle of the bigs, Sabonis chipped in 17, 15, and 7, but it was De’Aaron Fox who had a monster game with 26 Points, 16 Assists, 4 Rebounds, and 3 Steals.

Fox has taken a bit of a step back in 2024, averaging 22.9 Points on 44.2/33.6/69.4% shooting splits compared to 30.0 Points on 48.3/40.3/72.0% shooting splits in 2023. Fox doesn’t necessarily need to score 30 every night for the Kings to win, but the efficiency dip is what stands out to me the most.

The hot topic around Sacramento is how much the Kings have struggled to defend the 3-point line this season. Opponents are shooting 39.7% against them, 2nd highest in the league this season and 4th highest in NBA history. The Nuggets are one of the few teams that struggled against the Kings this season from beyond the arc, shooting just 6-of-24 (24.0%) from deep in the first matchup.

Denver doesn’t take a ton of 3’s, with 31.1 per game, 4th fewest in the league, but they do make them at an above average clip; 37.1%, good for 12th in the NBA. Like most teams in the league now, the Nuggets 3P% win/loss split is pretty drastic. They shoot 39.4% in their wins and 32.4% in their losses. For comparison, the Kings are at 39.8% in their wins and 33.1% in their losses.

That officially makes 3P% the swing stat of the game. Sometimes the simple one is the best one, and tonight feels like a game where it comes down to making shots or not. With how many 2PAs the Nuggets take, it’s definitely possible they win by dominating the paint game, but I can’t resist sticking to the hot topic of the Kings need to defend the 3-point line.

For the Kings, the main player I’ll be watching is Keegan Murray. In the last 4 games, Keegan has averaged 5.0 Points, 3.0 Rebounds, and 2.5 Assists on 30.8% from the field and 22.2% from 3. He hasn’t attempted a single FT over the 4-game span.

Keegan is going to have his ups and downs, but he’s too talented to continue a slump of this magnitude for long. The number that really jumps out to me is 6.5 FGAs. Whether they go in or not, I need to see Keegan get more shots up. I know I just asked the same for Sabonis, and I don’t know where the shots are going to come from, but I do feel confident in saying more shots from Keegan seems like a good strategy.