Kings vs. Heat Preview – By the Numbers

January 31, 2024

The Kings continue their long road trip in Miami to face the struggling Heat, who have lost 7 games in a row. They come into the game with the 22nd ranked offense and 13th ranked defense, similar splits to their 25th and 9th ranked ratings from last season. They then went on to take that defense heavy team to the championship, showing they can turn it on at any time.

Even with their recent struggles, they should not be taken lightly at all, but they do have some clear weaknesses. They are shooting 46.1% from the field (26th), grabbing 41.4 Rebounds (26th), and only blocking 3.4 shots per game.

They allow opponents to shoot 69.1% in the Restricted Area (5th), and 49.9% in the Floater Area (1st). The Kings are shooting 69.5% (4th) and 47.7% (3rd) in the two areas, respectfully. It’s a stats matchup that greatly favors Sacramento and something they should take advantage of.

Miami is going to come out with physicality to try and get out of their slump. If the Kings start the game by taking and missing a ton of threes, think the Grizzlies game, it could get ugly quickly. Take it to the Heat and expose their weaknesses, especially if the 3’s aren’t falling.

Individually for Miami, a lot of players are having great individual season. Jimmy Butler is averaging 21.1 Points, 5.1 Rebounds, 4.3 Assists and 1.2 Steals on 49.1/42.6/88.5% shooting splits. Tyler Herro is at 21.5, 4.8, and 4.1 on 43.2/40.3/85.3% splits. Bam Adebayo is at 20.7, 10.5, and 4.3 with 1.0 Steals and 1.1 Blocks. All Kings fans know what Terry Rozier can do on any given night. It just seems odd that the Heat have struggle so much lately, which makes me nervous for tonight.

Another area where the Kings should look to take advantage is with the pace of the game. The Heat are 2nd to last with a 97.49 Pace, while the Kings are at 100.21, good for 11th fastest in the league. We’ve seen the Kings struggle when they let their opponents dictate the pace, so that’s something else to watch early in this game.

As the pace suggests, the Heat are 2nd to last with only 12.1 Fastbreak Points per game. The Kings have slowly risen in the ranks after being at the bottom of the league early in the season. They are up to 13.0 per game on the season, but in their last 5 games are sitting at 16.0 per game.

Sacramento is 17-5 when they score at least 15 Fastbreak Points per game, which officially makes it tonight’s Swing Stat of the game. The Kings have looked like they have been making a concerted effort to push the tempo lately, and should look to do just that tonight against the slower footed Miami team.