Kings vs. Mavericks Preview – By the Numbers

January 27, 2024

The Kings are back in action for their 2nd game of a 7-game road trip on the eve of a historic performance from Luka Doncic.

The recently named All-Star starter scored 73 Points on an absurdly efficient 25-of-33 (75.8%) from the field, 8-of-13 (61.5%) from 3, and 15-of-16 (93.8%) from the Free Throw line. The Mavs needed almost every single point to squeak out the 148-143 win over the Hawks.

On the season, Luka is averaging 34.6 Points, 9.2 Assists, and 8.6 Rebounds on 49.2/38.1/77.7% shooting splits. It goes without saying, he does everything for the Mavs. In the first matchup with the Kings, he had 25 Points, 10 Rebounds, and 7 Assists, but the Kings held him to 36.8% from the field. Odds are Luka is going to get his numbers. The question will be how efficient he will be and how many points the ‘others’ will score.

While the Mavericks excel on the offensive side of the ball with the 8th ranked Offensive Rating, they struggle on defense with the 23rd ranked Defensive Rating. The area they struggle with the most is protecting the rim, allowing opponents to shoot 70.8% in the Restricted Area, the highest mark in the league.

In the first matchup, the Kings shot 18-of-25 (72.0%) in the zone en route to their 129-113 win. In their last 5 games, Sacramento has shot 71.4% at the rim, with multiple players shooting at a high clip.

  • Kevin Huerter – 87.5%
  • Keegan Murray – 81.8%
  • De’Aaron Fox – 75.0%
  • Domantas Sabonis – 72.7%

That officially makes Restricted Area scoring the Swing Stat of the game. The Mavericks love to shoot the 3, with 41.0 3PA’s per game, 2nd most in the league. The Kings are right behind them at 40.7, 3rd most. With the Mavs interior defensive struggles, they can’t get caught up in a shoot out. If the 3’s are falling, great, let them ride, but if not, get inside and attack the rim.

The Kings showed us last year that they could win in a multitude of ways. Early in this season, they established themselves as a make or miss 3-point shooting team who relied on Fox to carry them on most nights. Lately though, they are getting back to the well-rounded approach that worked so well for them last season. A look at Fox’s FGA’s by month paints the picture well:

  • October: 23.3
  • November: 21.8
  • December: 21.4
  • January: 18.9

The last two nights, it’s been Harrison Barnes leading the way with 39 and 32 Points. With teams having to improve their defensive pressure on Keegan Murray, that leaves the weaker wing guard to take Harrison Barnes. Barnes has always had the ability to go and get a bucket, and he’s shown that he still has that high level skill.

While I love Fox going off for 30 Points on a regular basis, I think this team is better when they take a well rounded approach, taking what the defense gives them. Let’s see if Barnes is in for another scorcher tonight or if someone else steps up to lead the way.