Kings vs. Warriors Preview – By the Numbers

January 25, 2024

After facing the Warriors 62 times in their first 4 games, the Kings start their 7-game road trip in The Bay to face the Warriors for the final time this season. After a stretch where it felt like the Kings were playing at least every other day, they have just their 2nd game in 7 days in one of the quietest stretches of the season.

This Warriors team feels extremely different from the team the Kings faced 3 times in their first 16 games of the year, to correct the sarcastic stat above. Chris Paul is hurt, Draymond Green is coming off the bench, and Jonathan Kuminga has taken center stage.

Last time the Kings faced the Warriors, Kuminga was trying to find his footing, and has been in and out of the rotation. Now, he’s scored in double figure for 21 straight games and has at least 20 in his last 4. Things are starting to click for the 21 year old wing.

His aggression and confidence getting to the basket appears to be at an all time high, and it makes me nervous for tonight against the Kings. Between him and Wiggins, the Warriors have two lengthy wings that can get a bucket, something that the Kings have struggled with this season.

It forces Harrison Barnes to be a vital member on defense, something that has been difficult this year so far. On the plus side, Barnes is coming off of a 32 Point outing against the Hawks in which he attempted a season high 20 FGs.

It looked like the first game since the season opener that Barnes was high on the priority list and that there were plays being run for him specifically. It will be extremely telling if the Kings take a similar approach going forward or if that will stand out as another one game anomaly. Sacramento is 8-2 this season when Barnes has at least 16 Points, so getting him involved may not be the worst plan.

Maybe more importantly, Barnes went 8-of-8 from the Free Throw line against the Hawks, helping the Kings have their best FT shooting game of the season. Barnes is averaging just 2.3 Free Throw Attempts, down from 5.0 last season. He’s hitting them at an 82.1% clip though, so if he can get his FT volume back up, it will go a long way in helping raise the Kings average as a whole.

As Kings fans surely remember, the Warriors are once again at the top of the league in both Offensive Rebounds and 2nd Chance Points, averaging 12.7 (2nd) and 15.8 (5th) of each. Kevon Looney is a beast on his own on the offensive glass, but they do it as a team. Andrew Wiggins grabs 1.8 Offensive Rebounds per game, Trayce Jackson-Davis 1.7, and Brandin Podziemski 1.5.

The good news for the Kings is that no one is better than them at limiting 2nd Chance Points. They hold opponents to 9.3 Offensive Rebounds and 11.7 2nd Chance Points per game, both the lowest marks in the league. That officially makes 2nd Chance Points the Swing Stat of the game.

Both of these teams shoot a ton of 3’s, 40.5 (3rd) for the Kings and 39.7 (4th) for the Warriors. There will be ample long rebounds that the Kings will have to go hunt down. Find a body, rebound as a team, and end the defensive possession with a board.

Last but not least, a reminder at how good Stephen Curry is at basketball. He’s 26.7 Points, 4.2 Rebounds, and 5.0 Assists on 44.6/40.1/92.6% shooting splits. He leads the league with 11.3 3PA’s per game. Sometimes you just have to hope that he doesn’t get on a heater against you, because when he does, it’s hard for anyone to beat the Warriors, even in Steph’s age 35 season.