Kings vs. Suns Preview – By the Numbers

January 16, 2024

After a difficult buzzer beater loss to the Bucks, the Kings finish up their road trip in Phoenix against the Suns, who sit just two games behind the Kings in the standings. The West is absolutely stacked up in the middle, so beating teams close in the standings will be vital for the Kings down the stretch. The Kings are 2-0 this year against the Suns so far, but tonight will be the first time they are playing them with Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker all playing.

While that sounds scary, the Suns are only 4-4 when all the stars take the court together. They are all having great individual seasons, but haven’t seemed to find a way to gel on the court together yet.

The issue that I always point out with the Suns is that they are not a high volume 3-point shooting team. They take 31.5 3’s per game, 26th in the NBA. They love the Mid-Range shot, attempting 13.2 in the area per contest, 2nd most in the league. If they want to take that many or more tonight, I say let them. Run them off the 3-point line and force them into those looks instead.

One of the biggest differences that stands out in the Suns wins and losses is their opponents Points in the Paint. In wins, the Suns give up 46.9 Points in the Paint, but in losses that jumps up to 53.1. For the Kings, we all know they are a make or miss team this season, but there’s also a correlation in wins and losses with their inside scoring.

In the Kings wins, Sacramento scores 55.3 Points in the Paint. In losses, that drops to 44.3. That officially makes Points in the Paint scoring the Swing Stat of the game. I’ll add a slight caveat that if the Kings make their 3’s at a high clip, it may not matter with the Suns low 3-point volume.

What made the Kings so special last year was they were able to score in so many different ways. They were a good 3-point shooting team, but didn’t rely on it game in and game out like they do this season. Over their last 7 games, the Kings have averaged 60.0 Points in the Paint. For reference, the Pacers lead the league with 57.2 per game.

In order for the Kings offense to continue to rise through the ranks, they’ll have to get back to that magic of scoring in a multitude of ways, and I hope that continues tonight against a team that tends to lose when they give up points inside.

Last but not least, Free Throws.

I know it’s a hot topic, but this teams just isn’t a good Free Throw shooting team. The main reason for that is that their high volume FT shooters are below average, and their good FT shooters don’t get to the line.

I think they both can improve with their shooting, but I don’t think the Kings will ever be a good Free Throw shooting team as a whole because of the volume vs. percentage equation. I take it in stride, knowing that Fox and Sabonis provide so much else on the court. It’s just one of those things that’s unfortunate where both of our star players have a deficiency in the same area