Kings vs. Pistons Preview – By the Numbers

January 9, 2024

After a Sunday afternoon letdown, the Kings head out to Detroit for the first game of a 5-game road trip. If the Kings aren’t able to get the win today, Kings fans might lose their minds on social media, so let’s hope for a better performance tonight.

Detroit is bad, we all know that. They broke their losing streak, but are sitting at 3-33 with the 27th ranked offense, 27th ranked defense, and 29th ranked Net Rating of -10.9. To add on to that, both Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart are out. Cade is the Pistons top scorer, and Stewart has started 28 games for Detroit. Marvin Bagley has been in and out of the lineup, but with Stewart out, there’s a good chance we’ll see him get some run tonight.

Bagley is averaging 10.2 Points, 4.6 Rebounds, 1.0 Assists on 58.9/16.7/82.5% shooting splits. If he gets in the game, I’d like to see the Kings go straight at him. If he’s guarding Sabonis, punish him inside. If he’s guarding Keegan, put him in space. If they switch, get him on Fox.

Getting back to the Pistons as a whole, let’s do a quick run down of some Pistons stats with league ranks:

  • Points: 111.5 (25th)
  • Rebounds: 43.3 (20th)
  • Assists: 25.8 (19th)
  • Steals: 6.1 (30th)
  • Turnovers: 16.1 (2nd)
  • 3PA’s: 30.4 (29th)
  • 3P%: 34.4% (28th)
  • Made 3Ps: 10.4 (30th)
  • Personal Fouls: 22.9 (1st)

Once again, close your eyes, throw a dart at the dart board and you’ll most likely hit a bad stat. The one that I’ll be looking at the most is the personal fouls and Kings Free Throw shooting.

The Pistons foul more than anyone in the league, leading to 27.7 Free Throw Attempts per game for their opponents, most in the league. The Kings are sitting at last in the league with a 72.9% FT%. One of the avenues I could see for the Kings to lose tonight is getting to the line 30+ times but shooting around 60%.

That officially makes FT% the swing stat of the game. I don’t think the Kings need to outshoot the Pistons from the line, but they can’t leave a dozen Points at the line, even against one of the worst teams in the league. Something that could help the Kings avoid that problem all together is finishing in the paint. The Pistons give up 54.1 Points in the Paint per game, 5th most in the league. Go up strong with the ball, finish through contact, and get the points on the bucket.

Last but certainly not least, De’Aaron Fox is in a bit of a slump. In his last 5 games, he’s averaging 19.2 Points, 3.4 Assists, and 5.0 Assists on very low 37.0/26.7%/70.0% shooting splits. It’s capped with the 3 Point performance against the Pelicans, but Fox is struggling right now.

What’s concerning is how many facets of his game have taken a dip. The 3-Point shooting makes sense to come and go throughout the season, but the 37.0% from the field is what stands out. In those 5 games, Fox has the following shooting splits inside the arc:

  • Restricted Area: 57.7%
  • Floater Area: 39.3%
  • Mid-Range: 18.8%

For comparison’s sake, the same shooting splits prior to the 5-game stretch:

  • Restricted Area: 64.4%
  • Floater Area: 50.0%
  • Mid-Range: 51.8%

Big drops across the board. I’m not concerned about Fox, but it is worth pointing out. It doesn’t seem like he’s moving as well as he was a few games ago. If there’s one thing that’s certain this season, the Kings need Fox. A return to form alone will go a long way in getting things back on track for the long term.