Kings vs. Raptors Preview – By the Numbers

January 5, 2024

The Kings continue their home stand with a game against the new look Toronto Raptors, including future King Pascal Siakam? All kidding aside, the Raptors are 2-0 with the addition of RJ Barret and Immanuel Quickley, with what appears to me a balanced out roster.

On the season, Toronto has the 17th ranked offense at 114.3 and 15th ranked defense at 115.0, but with such a big trade, all bets are off on season numbers. It’s what makes writing articles about teams after trades or injuries so hard to nail down. If you look at just the last two games, the Raptors have a 117.6 Offensive Rating and a 112.6 Defensive Rating, which would rank 9th and 8th in the season rankings. Even with that, small sample size comes into play.

One thing for sure that I don’t think will change with the new roster, Toronto loves to get out and run. They lead the league with 17.8 Fastbreak Points per game. The Kings are doing a great job of getting back in transition, limiting opponents to 11.4 Fastbreak Points each night, 3rd fewest in the league.

That officially makes Fastbreak Points the swing stat of the game. Like in the past, it’s not one the Kings necessarily have to win, but they have to at least keep it close. The Kings are sitting at 12.2 Fastbreak Points per game, 25th in the league. If they can keep it within 5 of the Raptors, I think they’ll be in position to win this one.

With Toronto being so difficult to get a read on right now, let’s focus on Pascal Siakam, both for tonight’s game and for the fun theoretical of a trade to the Kings. Siakam is averaging 22.4 Points, 6.6 Rebounds, and 4.9 Assists on 52.1/28.8/75.1% shooting splits.

While Pascal isn’t knocking down his 3’s at a good clip this year, he’s been great inside the arc. He’s shooting 73.2% in the Restricted Area, 50.0% in the Floater Area, and 43.3%. For reference, there are only 9 players in the NBA that are shooting at least 70/50/40% in those three areas (min 25 attempts). Siakam may not be able to hit from deep, but he is a bucket inside. Between him and Scottie Barnes tonight, the Kings will have two big wings they’ll have to deal with, which has been difficult for them this season.

For the Kings, Malik Monk is coming off yet another spectacular game with 37 Points and 9 Assists. The Kings thrive when he is on, and it shows in the stats. The Kings are 10-2 when he scores at least 18 Points. They are 11-2 when he has 6 or more Assists. If he’s able to impact in just one of those categories, the odds are high that the Kings win. (To finish off the stat, the Kings are 6-1 when he has at least 18 Points AND 6 Assists).

The fact that he can come off the bench and impact the game in both scoring and setting up teammates is so unique, as discussed before. He’s sitting at 6th in the NBA in Points off the bench with 14.9 and tied for 2nd with 5.3 Assists (min 15 games off the bench). Some people want him to start, but to me, staggering his minutes and Fox keeps a scorer and playmaker on the floor at all times, something not a lot of teams can say.