Kings vs. Suns Preview – By the Numbers

December 22, 2023

After a disappointing loss to the Celtics, the Kings are back in action against the Suns, who are struggling a bit compared to their preseason expectations. Phoenix is just 2-5 in their last 7 games, and 3-7 in their last 10. They have one 7-game winning streak this season, but other than that haven’t seen long stretches of success yet this year.

They come into the game with the 13th ranked offense, 16th ranked defense, and a myriad of injuries. Bradley Beal, Damion Lee, and Jusuf Nurkic are all out for tonight and Josh Okogie is questionable. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are definitely good enough to carry a team to victory on any given night, but this teams depth continues to get tested with underwhelming results.

Beal being out will get the headlines, but Nurkic missing the game will have a sneaky huge impact. By On/Off Net Rating, Nurk has been the Suns the most productive player this season with a +12.8 Net Rating differential. With him out, Sabonis could have a game inside against Drew Eubanks and Chimezie Metu.

Individually, Kevin Durant is having yet another amazing year averaging 31.0 Points, 6.1 Rebounds, and 5.6 Assists on 51.8% from the field, a career high 46.7% from 3, and 87.0% from the FT line. Not only is he hitting everything from beyond the arc, but he’s also shooting 83.1% in the Restricted Area and 52.2% in the Floater Area. His Mid-Range shooting is actually down to 39.7% this year, but he’s attempted 174 FGs in the area, 2nd most in the league.

If Kevin Durant wants to spam the mid-range shot tonight, I say let him. He’ll make enough to make you uncomfortable, but compared to the other options of him driving all the way to the hoop or hitting 3’s, I’ll take the mid-range option.

An area that the Kings will have to be careful of tonight is the Free Throw line. The Suns average 26.6 FTAs per game, 4th most in the league, and make them at an 82.8% clip (5th). That combo puts them at 2nd in the league with 22.0 made FTs per game. The Kings are sitting at 23.4 FTAs (13th), and shooting 73.6% from the line (28th). That puts them at 17.2 made freebies per game, 18th in the league. Between the volume and percentage differences, the Kings could are looking at a big disadvantage from the line tonight.

Where the Kings should be able to make up those points is from beyond the arc. They are making 15.7 3’s per game (3rd) to the Suns 11.7 (23rd). The Suns shoot from such a low volume from deep that they are constantly in a deficit from deep.

Another main story line I will be watching is dependent on Malik Monk playing or not, as he is currently listed as questionable on the latest injury report. His combination of not only scoring off of the bench this year with 14.6 Points but an impressive 5.2 Assists per game off the bench is truly unique. The playmaking is what really stands out to me, and something I’m not sure anyone else off the bench can duplicate if he’s out.

It may be a situation where Fox and Sabonis handle the ball more when they are in with the 2nd unit, but there hasn’t been anyone who can replicate what Monk does for the Kings outside of the starters. Monk has yet to miss a game this season, so it will be a new situation whenever Monk does eventually miss a game, and something to keep an eye on.