Kings vs. Celtics Preview – By the Numbers

December 20, 2023

After a game against the lowly Wizards, the Kings face a much more difficult battle tonight in the 20-6 Boston Celtics, who are coming off an overtime loss to the Warriors last night. Just because they lost last night doesn’t mean they can’t lose again though, as the Celtics dropped two straight games in early November.

Boston comes into the game with the 6th best offense, 3rd best defense, and 2nd best Net Rating in the league. Safe to say, they’re really freakin’ good. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are once again leading the way for them, averaging 26.8 and 22.5 Points each, respectfully. Tatum is also chipping in 8.7 Rebounds, 4.2 Assists, and 1.0 Steals per game as one of the most dynamic players in the league.

The two stars get the attention, and rightfully so, but the Celtics roster is built to perfection to work around the two. Neither Tatum or Brown are knock down 3-point shooters, sitting at 34.5% and 33.9%, but the rest of the roster is scattered with shooters who are knocking down their looks from deep this year:

  • Sam Hauser: 43.1% – 5.9 Att/Game
  • Derrick White: 41.5% – 6.4 Att/Game
  • Jrue Holiday: 38.3% – 4.5 Att/Game
  • Payton Pritchard: 37.8% – 3.8 Att/Game
  • Al Horford: 36.4% – 3.8 Att/Game

Be on the lookout for a shootout from beyond the arc tonight. I’m not saying that both teams are going to make a ton of 3’s, but I can almost guarantee they will shoot a ton of 3’s. Boston leads the league with 43.0 3PAs per game, and the Kings are sitting at 41.8, 3rd most in the NBA.

That officially makes 3P% the Swing Stat of the game. In a game with this high volume of 3’s, it may simply come down to who hits their shots. Much like the Kings, the Celtics rely on hitting their looks from beyond the arc to win, as shown in their Win/Loss 3P% split. They shoot 39.0% in wins and 29.5% in losses.

The other sneaky part about Boston is that while they don’t take many looks from inside the arc, 46.8 per game, fewest in the league, they make them count when they do. They are sitting at 3rd in the NBA with a 57.3% 2P FG%. When they do go inside, they make it count by getting all the way to the rim.

Good news for the Kings is that they should be able to get their normal good looks from beyond the arc tonight. While Boston’s defense is 3rd in the league, they allow teams to shoot 21.3 Wide-Open 3’s per game, 4th most in the league. That should pair well for the Kings, who are getting 23.2 Wide-Open 3’s per game, 2nd most in the league. The question will be, as the Swing Stat suggests, can they knock them down?

Individually for the Kings, Domantas Sabonis is coming alive inside of late, especially with his inside shooting touch. He’s shot 83.3% in the Restricted Area over the last 4 games, compared to 66.4% in the first 21 games.

When he starts finishing through contact at that high of a clip, his scoring really takes off. Not only does he get more Points, but it also forces teams to bring the double team more often, opening up the Kings offense. I’ve been waiting all year for him to get his groove going inside, and we might finally be there.

And last but not least, the Neemias Queta revenge game watch. Queta’s career high is 11 Points from his rookie year with the Kings, and he had a season high 10 Points last night against the Warriors. With Kristaps Porziņģis’ status uncertain tonight, Queta could get a lot of run tonight…