Kings vs. Thunder Preview – By the Numbers

December 14, 2023

The Kings are back in action for their 2nd matchup with the Thunder this season. In the first game, the Kings won 105-98 without De’Aaron Fox, but tonight the Kings star is back for a much anticipated matchup against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Fox and Shai are two of the best guards in the league with very similar stats and playstyles. Fox is averaging 29.5 Points, 4.5 Rebounds, 6.4 Assists, and 1.4 Steals on 46.9/38.1/73.3% shooting splits. Shai is sitting at 30.4 Points, 5.5 Rebounds, 6.2 Assists, and a league leading 2.8 Steals per game on 55.0/34.3/91.7% shooting splits.

Fox gets the advantage on 3-point shooting this year, but Shai gets the advantage on Free Throw shooting and Steals. While the two are both great offensive players, I’ll be watching the defensive battle closely. I expect Fox to guard Shai, but wouldn’t be surprised if Lu Dort gets the first assignment on Fox, as he’s held him in check in previous years. The two are burgeoning two-way stars who are making their mark on both sides of the ball, and tonight should be electric between the two guards.

Elsewhere on the court, another big matchup to watch will be Domantas Sabonis going against Chet Holmgren. In the first matchup, Sabonis had a triple-double with 17 Points, 13 Rebounds, and 13 Assists while taking the ball inside early and often. Chet has the height advantage but Sabonis has the clear strength advantage. The Thunder were forced to double team Domas down low, leading to his 13 Assists and multiple open looks for the rest of Sacramento.

Making those open looks will be important tonight, as OKC leads the league in 3P% at 39.1%. The Kings have become a make or miss team this year, relying on the 3-ball to win.

One of those 3 wins with a poor 3-point shooting performance was against the Thunder, thanks in large part to winning the rebounding battle 52-38 and the 2nd Chance Points 23-6. If the shots aren’t falling for the Kings like we saw against the Clippers, they will have to take advantage of the Thunder’s poor rebounding.

OKC is 26th in the league with 41.0 Rebounds and last with 8.2 Offensive Rebounds per game. They allow a league high 16.5 2nd Chance Points per game.

And last but not least, the Swing Stat of the game. 2nd Chance Points is in strong consideration, but for tonight the simple stat of 3P% may be the most telling one. Both the Kings and Thunder rely on the 3-ball to win games, as shown by their Win/Loss 3P% splits:

  • Kings
    • Wins: 39.8%
    • Losses: 30.5%
  • Thunder
    • Wins: 42.9%
    • Losses: 30.8%

We’ve seen the Kings shoot themselves to blowout wins, and we’ve seen them shoot themselves to blowout losses. Let’s just hope tonight that it’s a close game at the very least after a TOUGH game against the Clippers.