Kings vs. Nets Preview – By the Numbers

December 11, 2023

In the much anticipated Harry Giles return game, the Kings welcome the Nets to the Golden 1 Center in just their 2nd game this season against an Eastern Conference team. Brooklyn comes into the game with the 7th ranked offense and 18th ranked defense, so the Kings will have to slow them down tonight to come away with the win.

The key aspect of shutting down the Nets is guarding the 3-point line. Brooklyn is leading the league with a 38.7% clip from beyond the arc on 38.2 attempts per game (7th). What’s interesting is that their 3-point shooting doesn’t seem to affect their winning. In wins, they are shooting 38.6%. In losses, it actually goes up to 38.9%.

What fluctuates more is wins and losses is Brooklyn’s defense. In wins, they have a Defensive Rating of 104.5, and in losses 126.1. It will be on the Kings to attack on offense and come in strong with their emerging superpower.

When the Kings are crashing the offensive glass, they are nearly unstoppable. The Nets are allowing 15.5 2nd Chance Points per game, 6th most in the NBA. Brooklyn has a lot of length, but they don’t have a big body that can match Sabonis, who is bringing in 3.5 Offensive Rebounds per game, t-6th most in the league.

That officially makes 2nd Chance Points the swing stat of the game! Sacramento is currently scoring 14.4 2nd Chance Points per game, 13th in the league. In their wins though, they are at 16.6, and in their losses it drops to 11.1. Those would rank 4th and 28th in the season standing, respectfully.

Another advantage that the Kings should look at tonight is Domas against Nic Claxton. Last year when guarded by Claxton, Sabonis shot 6-of-9 (66.7%) from the field and dished out 6 Assists. It’s a matchup where the Kings have a clear advantage due to his strength. They’ll have to be wary of Claxton’s shot blocking abilities (2.4, 7th), but the strength advantage is clear.

Individually for the Nets, Mikal Bridges has been great in the lead role this year. He’s averaging 23.2 Points, 6.0 Rebounds, 4.0 Assists and 1.0 Steals per game on 49.3/37.8/86.0% shooting splits. He’s scoring from all 3 levels, but really loves the corner 3, shooting 45.1% compared to 32.4% above the break. The Nets are 10-5 when Bridges scores 20 or more Points, but only 2-4 when he is held under 20. He should be the main focus for the Kings defense tonight.

In what is seemingly an every game occurrence, De’Aaron Fox is coming off yet another 30-point game. With 34 Points, 7 Assists, and 4 Rebounds, Fox is impacting the game in so many ways, but he showed yet again why he was the winner of the first every Clutch Player of the Year award last season.

After his 23 4th quarter Points against the Suns, the All-Star point guard is up to 152 total 4th quarter Points, tied for 3rd most in the league. The two players ahead of him, Tyrese Maxey and Giannis Antetokounmpo have played 183.3 and 183.5 4th quarter minutes each, and LeBron James, who is tied with Fox, has played 174.9. Fox is sitting at just 136.1.

De’Aaron’s FG% is a little low in the 4th, 47.6%, but his 3P% jumps to 41.9% and he’s hitting his closing period FTs at an 80.4% clip. What stands out is the volume of his shots to close out games. His 7.4 attempts in the quarter are the most in the NBA, far above Cade Cunningham’s 2nd place 6.0. The Kings clearly have a strategy when the game is coming to a close. Give the ball to Fox, and let him go to work. And so far this season? The strategy seems to be paying off.